地球工程 应对全球变暖最后的猛药

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平流层注入气溶胶

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空间反光镜

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太阳伞

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海洋中施加铁元素

温室气体导致的全球气候变暖已经成为当前世界各国面临的严峻挑战之一。在此背景下,“地球工程”作为应对全球气候变暖而提出的一种最直接的人为治理气候的手段,在国际气候谈判中被越来越多地提及和关注。

那么,“地球工程”到底是什么?有何作用?为何逐渐成为国际谈判中的宠儿?

1.什么是地球工程?

“地球工程”也被称为气候工程,是指为了应对全球气候变化及其影响,人类根据认知水平和相应能力,从工程和技术手段在较大尺度范围对气候状况加以调节或修正的各种努力和行为。“地球工程”的定位是在减缓和适应气候变化不力情况下的应急措施,目标是解决气候变化带来的全球升温问题。

“地球工程”的想法由来已久。早在20世纪60年代,美国总统科学顾问委员会在一份名为“恢复我们的环境质量”的报告中提出二氧化碳排放正在改变我们赖以生存的家园,需要认真探索人工干预对抗气候变化的可行性,并建议每年花费50亿美元在热带地区安置反射性材料,以及利用增加云层等手段来应对气候变化。这是全球第一个正式应对气候变化的研究报告,也是第一次在政府层面提出的大规模人为干预气候变化的设想。但“地球工程”这一概念直到2009年才由英国皇家学会提出,且提出之前经历了多年的发展孕育过程。荷兰大气化学家保罗·约瑟夫·克鲁岑由于证明了氮的氧化物会加速“大气平流层中保护地球不受太阳紫外线辐射的臭氧”的分解,而获得1995年诺贝尔化学奖。在此基础上,克鲁岑引入了“人类世”的概念,即地球环境越来越受到人类活动影响的一个新的地质时期,并据此提出在全球变暖背景下,在大气平流层注入气溶胶以应对全球气候变暖的设想,由此开启了进入21世纪以来地球工程应对全球气候变化的大争论。

“地球工程”的热议与21世纪全球气候变暖的严峻挑战分不开。随着全球气候变暖持续,联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)在2011年第一次召开了以“地球工程”为主题的会议,同时IPCC第四次和第五次评估报告中也开始不断关注地球工程的内容,并探讨地球工程在气候变化应对中的技术和治理问题。

2.“地球工程”的两种主要类型

联合国政府间气候变化专门委员会将地球工程分为两种类型。

第一种类型是碳移除地球工程,其主要原理和路径是通过植树造林、土壤固碳、生物质碳捕获、土地利用管理、岩石圈和海洋碳封存等各种碳捕获、封存和转化技术,来降低大气中的温室气体浓度。

碳去除地球工程最典型的是海洋施肥。主要包括三种手段:一是向海洋中施加铁元素,促进浮游生物大量生长,提高固定二氧化碳的能力;二是向海洋中施加氮、磷等营养元素,加快浮游生物的代谢过程,加速二氧化碳沉淀到海底的速率;三是将深层海水抽到表层,向海洋表层提供营养元素,同时加快表层的碳固定到海底的速率。20世纪90年代以来,全球至少进行了13次大规模的海洋施肥实验,涉及海域超过1400平方公里,参与的国家包括美国、加拿大、澳大利亚、英国、法国、巴西、墨西哥、日本、菲律宾、荷兰、中国等。

第二种类型是太阳辐射管理地球工程,是通过影响进入到大气层的太阳辐射,为地球“直接降温”。其主要原理和路径是通过增加反照率,把一些太阳光散射回太空,从而减少地球吸收的短波辐射,降低地球变暖的速率。例如在大气层中的平流层人为注入气溶胶、亮化增白大气中的云层、屋顶刷白、沙漠绿化、在地球大气层中设置太空反射镜等。

1991年,菲律宾吕宋岛的皮纳图博火山爆发,大量火山灰进入大气平流层,近2000万吨二氧化硫和水滴混合形成一种气态反射镜,在高空停留了近两年时间,将太阳光反射回太空,导致1992-1993年间抵达地球表面的太阳辐射减少超过10%,使得全球在一年之内降温0.75摄氏度。平流层注入气溶胶尽管是遏制全球变暖最快的方式之一,但也是最危险的方式,一旦工程启动,全球气候模式将受到极大的影响。

3.“地球工程”研究中充满争论

早前欧美一些国家已率先开展了地球工程的相关研究,但由于地球工程措施过于激进,因此,科学界对地球工程的“副作用”存在很多争议。例如太阳辐射管理地球工程会破坏区域天气气候模式和季风系统,这对依赖可预测的季节周期来完成农业等任务的部门来说是一个棘手的问题。

例如已有研究表明,如果从2020-2070年间每年在赤道上空喷洒500万吨二氧化硫,南北半球会均匀地蒙上一层硫酸云,使地球气温下降约1℃。如果这项工程实施后骤然停止,气温会以实施之前10倍的速度回升,带来的环境变化将使很多生物难以适应。在温带草原和森林地带,气温与降雨量分布的严重不协调会使生物无所适从。同时地球工程的实施可能导致热带太平洋水温升高,产生厄尔尼诺现象,给南美洲带来旱灾。

4.应对气候变暖最后救命稻草

2015年12月12日在巴黎气候变化大会上通过了《巴黎协定》,并确立了温控目标,即“把全球平均气温较工业化前水平升高控制在2摄氏度之内,并为把升温控制在1.5摄氏度之内而努力”。目前全球地表平均气温已经大约上升了0.85摄氏度,这一形势下,要达到《巴黎协定》所确定的温控目标挑战十分严峻。

虽然地球工程是一个非常有争议的领域,但近年来,科学界对于“地球工程是一种研究禁忌”的看法开始逐渐转变。目前国际上主要的研究机构都开始参与到地球工程的研究中来,并发展出相互合作的研究计划,以从理论上深化地球工程在应对全球气候变化中的作用和可能的影响。近十年的地球工程研究虽然取得一些进展,但地球工程的研究还是相对薄弱,还未得到地球系统多模式集合的验证,且实施效果具有高度不确定性,可能带来高风险。这一系列的问题还没有统一科学的答案,因此,目前的认识还不能支持未来能否实施地球工程的决策。

如果全球气候变暖不能得到有效控制,一旦变暖超过4摄氏度,气候系统将会逼近气候变暖不可逆的“临界点”,在这种情况下,太阳辐射管理地球工程将会成为短时间、低成本和应急的地球有效降温的“最后一剂猛药”。

5.我国也在开展“地球工程”研究项目

2015年,我国启动了关于“地球工程”的第一个为期五年的国家重大科学研究计划“地球工程的综合影响评价和国际治理研究”。该项目的设立将有助于提升我国在“地球工程”研究领域的理论水平和科学认识。

中国气象局发展研究中心孔锋等在《灾害学》杂志上发表的最新研究成果,系统分析了“地球工程”对中国极端降雨强度的影响,结果表明地球工程会使得中国整体性的极端降雨趋于增多,且极端降雨的空间异质性增强。

根据孔锋等人前期的研究成果,发现在当前“地球工程模式比较计划”的模式设定的地球工程实施当量下,大气物理环境的“自我恢复能力”依然能够占据主导地位。地球工程对气候产生的人为扰动随着时间的推移逐渐被“抹平”,确保地球工程实施结束后原有的气候格局不被根本性改变。这一结论支持了2014年IPCC第五次气候变化评估报告第三工作组关于太阳辐射管理地球工程的评估结论。

来源:新华网

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